Archive for May, 2010

It’s Getting Lonely in the Center

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010

The May 18 US congressional primary elections illustrate perfectly two of the polar opposites arising from an accelerated negative social mood, separation as opposed to togetherness, opposing in contrast to supportive, the political center where compromises are forged took it on the chin. Candidates hand-picked by national leaders and incumbents from both parties were thrown out by voters hungry for a change, any change it seems, to give somebody else a chance. As voter Edith Cornelius, 69, of Arkansas said after casting her vote the Democratic nomination for governor, “I’d like to see a change and let someone else have a try.” She wasn’t the only one.

Even prior to the elections, the Republican party convention in Utah kicked out conservative Senator Robert Bennett for not being conservative enough in favoring rightist positions in the Senate “just” 84 percent of the time. On the same day on the other side of the country, the state Republican Party in Maine dumped its mix of free economics and conservation in favor of a platform abolishing the Federal Reserve, terming global warming a “myth”, closing the US borders and “fighting efforts to create one world government.” How’s that for “opposing” in contrast to “supporting”.

And the US isn’t the only part of the world where such sentiments are being expressed at the ballot box.

In early May, voters in Germany’s largest state, North Rhine-Westphalia, resoundingly spoke out against the incumbent Christian Democratic Party (CDP) of Chancellor Angela Merkel in a backlash against her reluctance to take any potentially unpopular decision on German participation in the bailout of Greece in the run-up to the election. As a result, the GDP received about ten percent less votes than in the previous election in 2005, resulting in their loss of a coalition they led with the Free Democratic Party.

As another even more striking example of negative social mood in the political arena, in early April the center-Right Fidesz Party in Hungary took nearly 53 percent of the vote in a blow to the Socialist government, while the far-Right Jobbik Party received over 16 percent. By way of contrast, the ruling Socialist Party managed to garner a scant 19 percent. Ominously, the country’s largest Jewish organization warned that the vote was “the first occasion that a movement pursuing openly anti-Semitic policies” has taken a step to power since the Nazi era.

All these cases illustrate the point made in the opening chapter of Mood Matters that when voters are frustrated (i.e., in a negative mood), that frustration has to find an outlet somewhere. And “somewhere” in this context almost invariably means the incumbent or his/her party takes it on the chin.

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Xenophobia Makes a Comeback

Saturday, May 22nd, 2010

Here are three recent headlines from the mainline media:
US Rep Backs Deport of Illegal Immigrants’ US KidsAssociated Press, April 29, 2010
Of Values, Veils and Mistresses - International Herald Tribune, April 30-May 2, 2010
Anger over Ariz. Immigration Law Drives US RalliesAssociated Press, May 2, 2010
Each of these articles underscores the pronounced movement from tolerance of “the stranger” in western industrialized society to its polar opposite, bigotry and xenophobia. The second piece is especially interesting, as it is a column by Alan Cowell addressing the social divisions in France stemming from an incident involving a 31-year-old woman wearing a niqab, a form of headdress with only a narrow slit for the eyes. French police officers levied a 22-Euro fine on the woman for driving while wearing a veil, presumably because they were worried about safety on the highway. But the action sparked off a huge debate in France over what it means to be French and what it means to be French and Muslim.
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“Recovery” of the Art Market?

Saturday, May 22nd, 2010

“Signs Emerge of Recovery for Art Sales” shouted a headline in the April 20, 2010 issue of the International Herald Tribune. By way of contrast, pages 70-72 of Mood Matters argue that art sales will be a big-time loser as the overall global social mood deepens. Since this story seems to undermine that claim, it’s worth digging into it a bit deeper to see what is really going on.

After quoting sources like Philip Hoffman, head of the Fine Art Group Fund, and the head of Castlestone Management, a fund that specializes in art investment for well-heeled clients about the prospects for the art market (which is tantamount to asking the foxes if they thought chickens were a good investment), the article slips-in the very revealing quote from Castlestone that “equities is considered to be a key indicator when analyzing trends in the art market.” A socionomist would read this as: The art market can be expected to rise as the social mood increases, and then decline as people start fearing the future again.

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Michael’s Back!

Saturday, May 22nd, 2010

In mid-April 2010, professional basketball’s most marketable and iconic player, Michael Jordan, purchased majority interest in the Charlotte Bobcats for $275 million. It’s often said that timing is everything in life. So in view of Jordan’s exquisite ability to move in and out of the NBA as both a player and owner at pivotal turning points in the overall social mood (i.e., major turning points in the financial markets) as discussed on p. 85 of MM (and depicted in the graphic below, which was not used in the book), we wait with bated breath to see if Jordan has or has not lost his golden touch (or perhaps we should say “fool’s golden” touch). If the Jordan’s past is prologue to the future of the social mood, a prudent investor might start accumulating a fistful of call options on the S&P500 right now.

Michael Jordan Graph

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